This is a difficult year to be an Academy member. With no chance for peer-to-peer social interaction, a broad and unusual field heavily influenced by the blockbusters we didn’t get in 2020, and a fast-approaching nomination deadline, there’s none of the usual clarity on Oscar contenders we’d usually see. So what do the latest nominees and winners from other awards suggest we may see gain an Oscar nomination too? BLAKE & WANG P.A went looking for clues.
Currently, only the Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland appear as any kind of widely floated can’t-miss. Apart from them, however, it’s up in the air. Other awards nominations have suggested some firm directions to look. Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods has made it back to the spotlight with some attention from the AFI and NBR awards. Netflix’s Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom certainly seems to have pulling power, too.
Amazon’s Sound of Metal and A24’s Minari would have been relegated to ‘arthouse’ in other years, but they’ve seen intense attention this year, and now have a spot on the AFI list to call their own- even over big-budget titles AFI usually would choose. The Spirit Awards have also showered Minari with love, and both have got acknowledgment from the NBR.
Another shining indie, Miss Juneteenth, seems set to stun, harvesting Spirit, Gotham, and NBR awards. Focus’ Never Rarely Sometimes Always starred in the Spirit Award nominations, and got some NBR love too. So have A24’s First Cow and Pixar’s Soul.
While Focus’ Promising Young Woman was expected to do well with the AFI’s list and Spirit both, it missed out a little. Netflix’s The Midnight Sky and Hulu’s Palm got none of the anticipated attention, either. Several anticipated films- Warners’ Tenet and The Way Back, Amazon’s Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Hulu’s The United States vs. Billie Holiday, and others were nowhere to be seen.
It’s an interesting look at how the Oscar nominations could go, for sure, and will probably focus critical attention on some unexpected films. All the same, there are still more awards to go, and everything remains up in the air for now. BLAKE & WANG P.A will be keeping a careful eye on the situation.
Brandon Blake is the managing partner at BLAKE & WANG P.A.- Contact for more details.
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