There’s much talk of a recession coming, at least in the news headlines. While we’ve yet to see particularly compelling evidence of this come through in anything but the gloomy media cycle, many investors and businesses alike are taking soundings and preparing to batten down hatches. While Netflix has taken a battering of its own in recent months, there’s some evidence that suggests it may still be favorably positioned enough to weather a recession well. Blake &WanyP.A entertainment lawyer, Brandon Blake, looks at this stance.

Tech Stocks Worst Hit, Entertainment a Safe Harbor

In brutal honesty, the entertainment industry itself likely has little to fear from a ‘recession climate’. Where we’re seeing the most stock-related issues is in the tech market, always a fickle landscape for booms and busts alike. However, the trends being looked for- free cash flow, decent growth potential, and reasonable prices, with less stock-based compensation- are all hallmarks of stocks likely to perform well in a downturned bear market.

Historically, entertainment does perform well in this sort of market, becoming a safe harbor (of sorts) for investors. However, we do definitely have an environment that’s running very saturated in streamers, and it’s inevitable the pecking-order battles we’ve seen accelerate over recent months as the ‘free growth’ cycle ends and subscriber saturation becomes a real issue will weed out the fittest and strongest in the event of such a downturn. The million-dollar question is- who will that be?

The Surprising Argument FOR Netflix

This hasn’t been Netflix’s year. Amidst some (often deserved) criticism for lukewarm content and abrupt heel-turns on their sharing policy, Netflix’s subscriber losses in Q1, with more anticipated to come, have not made it the most compelling entertainment asset in the market. However, they have one thing that may prove invaluable if we truly do enter a space where consumers begin to jettison entertainment expenditure and tighten their budgets- a widespread and saturated consumer base that, if usage statistics can be trusted, still has a lot of traction. Their brand may have taken a hit in recent months, but it’s still one of the best-known streaming brands in the space. Additionally, their recent stock dips have sliced a lot of top-heavy value off their buying price.

While nothing is set in stone in entertainment or the markets, those two factors could well position Netflix for a rebound in a tight economic environment- if they manage to address the trust and content issues that have been raised, that is.

Candy, a limited series under the Hulu banner designed to roll out over a week in a daily episode release, has managed to carve itself a spot on the Nielsen weekly chart for May 9th-15th. Earning Hulu a best debut title it hasn’t claimed since the release of the latest The Handmaid’s Tale season, it’s an impressive undertaking. Entertainment attorney from Blake & Wang P.A, Brandon Blake, takes a look at the rest of the top 10.

Netflix Still Dominates

Despite this rather marvelous grab from Hulu, the rest of the spots were heavily dominated by Netflix. Ozark takes an unsurprising lead with a hefty 1.73B minutes of viewing. Their new original series, The Lincoln Lawyer, based on the Michael Connelly novel of the same name, slid into second at 884M viewing minutes.

The ‘bronze’ spot belongs to Senior Year, a Rebel Wilson comedy that managed to claim 797M viewing minutes, not bad for a film among series. Despite the Netflix dominance, with Cocomelon (715M min.); Grace And Frankie (584M min.); Criminal Minds (546M min.) NCIS (539M min.); Workin’ Moms (512M min.) and Our Father (450M min.) all making an appearance, it’s hard not to see Candy as the real winner. Its 6th-place debut with 577M minutes watched is notably impressive for an unorthodox release, and it managed to sustain at least 25M minutes apiece for every one of the subsequent episodes, mostly pulling in the 35-49 female demographic.

Nielsen Chart Demographics

This chart data is assembled by Nielsen based on US streaming through TV devices, meaning mobile statistics are not present in the data. It reports across Hulu, Netflix, Apple TV+, Disney+, and Amazon Prime. There’s a delay of about a month in the released data.

Intriguingly, this means we’re looking back at what was trending right as Netflix was hit by its now-notorious poor first-quarter earnings call and the fallout from this. In fact, this was the very week when they were being threatened by a lawsuit for non-disclosure of pertinent financial facts. We can’t draw too many conclusions from one week of viewing, of course, but it’s interesting to see their domination of the charts for that week all the same.

In yet another interesting partnership as streamers fight for recognition and subscriber interest in a crowded marketplace, we see Vice Media Group send their free, ad-supported streaming channel, Vice FAST, to Fox’s streaming arm, Tubi. Blake & Wang P.A entertainment lawyer, Brandon Blake, shares the news.

200 Hours of New Programming

The deal was struck by Vice Distribution, and will include 200 hours of new programming as well as the FAST channel deal. This means that Most Expensivest, The Devil You Know and Dark Side of the Ring will also debut on Tubi, alongside the tech, sports, and food fare Vice FAST is known for. 

The appeal on Vice’s side appears to be additional growth in the TV-connected sector, capitalizing on Fox’s existing linear and broadcast appeal. Vice has been pursuing new market opportunities quite voraciously over the last 18-months, even pulling its Sky-bundled packages in favor of AVOD streaming opportunities. 

New Market Movement

The licensing sector has become a hotbed of deals and movement in the same time period, with many seeking to eke out their own corner of the increasingly crowded streaming space. Many of the best-favored deals, as exemplified by Roku’s growing sway over the market, have seen some combination of free and AVOD/FAST programming combined with capitalizing on growth in sectors not already flooded by premium-tier subscribers and the bloody battle to keep new subscriptions rolling in. Sony, too, is capitalizing on its lack of a homegrown streamer to push solid licensing deals with a variety of platforms.

Is this a passing phase, or a stronger indication of where future market leaders will be pushing their content? For now, it’s too early to tell, but it’s certainly indicative of a shift in how streaming and streamers are being viewed globally, and could well open up some interesting market opportunities along the way.

Who exactly is going to buy Starz? This question has been hovering over the premium cable and satellite TV network (and fledgling streamer) for a while now. It’s been crystal clear that Lionsgate has been taking the time to ‘buyer-shop’ among interested parties, but the deal is starting to drag a little. Last week we saw them finally make an announcement about the future of Starz. Blake & Wang entertainment lawyer, Brandon Blake, sheds some light on the situation.

Closing by Next Spring

We still don’t have a clear buyer announcement, of course. However, we’ve been promised one by the end of summer, with the deal closing by spring. In fact, they teased that it could be as early as the end of fiscal quarter four. More M&A developments were also hinted at, for both Starz and Lionsgate overall, once the separation is finalized.

For people keen to see who will eventually take home the prize, it’s still a frustratingly vague announcement. Many names have been thrown into the hat in the last year. Roku has shown clear interest, as has Canal+ (part of the Vivendi conglomerate). Apollo Global Management has been keen on acquiring a minority interest, while DirecTV was also tied to the deal by rumor. 

Lionsgate Acquisition

Lionsgate itself took Starz over for a relatively-small $4.4B in 2016. It’s shown solid growth in the streaming arena, but failed to enhance its parent company’s bottom line by much. Hence their urge to spin it off, a move that could unlock greater value for both entities if done well.

Starz has been responsible for the bulk of recent subscription additions for Lionsgate, comprising 47% of the gain last year that has left them at 35.8M subscribers. StarzPlay International consortium has seen particularly good growth.

So far, we have a more concrete timeline and the knowledge that Lionsgate will retain a minority stake of their own. Still frustratingly vague, but definite progress on the deal. We’ll keep you informed as other updates arrive.

It’s not the easiest of eras for broadcast TV networks, but it seems they may have found at least one magic tool to help them stay relevant as competition grows. If the latest Nielsen data is anything to go by, that’s the power of the franchise. Brandon Blake, the entertainment lawyer at Blake & Wang P.A, takes a look at the data.

Network Franchises and the Scripted Summer Hiatus

Going purely by Nielsen’s latest data, of the 20 most popular (scripted) series running at the moment, 12 were part of wider IP franchises. Up it to 13 if you want to argue Young Sheldon, once a Big Bang Theory spinoff, as another. There’s more to come, too, as ABC announces a Fall spinoff for The Rookie, too.

It’s the strongest possible indicator that broadcasters, at least, are hoping familiar storylines and beloved characters will be enough to entice viewers otherwise inundated with viewing choices on all sides. 

Analyzing the Stats

How is it fairing for them? Nielsen data suggests CBS comes out ahead of the pack, with 4.2M views on average. There’s quite a drop off to NBC (3.2M), ABC (2.8M), and Fox (2M). Surprisingly, smaller broadcasters like Telemundo managed to represent, although not to break the 1M viewers threshold. 

TNT came out ahead in the cable networks (likely due to the NBA playoffs) with 3.36M, followed by Fox at 2.2M and ESPN at a fraction over 2M. News-wise, ABC takes the lead, pulling in 7.5M viewers over the week period. NBC’s Nightly News managed 6.2M, and CBS’s Evening News 4.5M.

Overall, it’s clear that the beleaguered broadcast industry is sticking with ‘playing it safe’ in the scripted space and leveraging beloved IPs instead of trying to pull in new interest. While live sports and news continue to be massive drawcards, it’s otherwise a quiet environment with nothing daring being attempted to draw people away from streaming offerings.

In a deal that’s been teased since February, we’ve finally seen a formal announcement that UK-based telecom giant, BT Group, and Warner Bros Discover will be merging sports media units BT Sport and Eurosport in the UK and Ireland as a 50/0 joint venture. Blake & Wang P.A entertainment lawyer, Brandon Blake, unpacks what we know.

HBO Content Falls Away

As we already expected, the existing content output funnel to the UK’s Pay-TV giant, Sky, will not continue, at least in its current form. While the merger is still a way off, we will instead see the combination of HBO Max with Discovery+ replace this in the British market.

The new venture, however, seeks to fit into the new entity’s push to enter different markets. WBD has been positioning itself as a ‘multi-product’, rather than a one-trick pony, in the streaming market for a while now.

The combination of two larger sports streaming entities in the UK will give it a powerful corner of the market to play with, too.

Existing Subscriber Swop-Over

Those who already access BT Sport as part of their wider BT packages will receive Discovery+ in its stead, with both live and on-demand sports streaming on offer. Both entities will funnel their existing sports rights and distribution agreements to the new entity, while WBD will assume direct command of BT Sport’s operating businesses. BT will net $114 million (£93 million) from WBD, as well as an approximate earn-out of around $659 million (£540 million), although there are attached conditions. Likewise, BT retains a 50% interest in the joint venture. WBD receives a call option over that interest, however, to be exercised at specific points in the first four years.

It’s a pretty major shift in the UK’s live sports landscape, with the top leagues of English soccer, cricket, and rugby entering the scene. BT wishes to roll back focus to its telecommunications business, and BT Sport has underperformed for them to date. Meanwhile, WBD scores an interesting foothold on live sport in the key European destination. It will certainly be interesting to see how the scene develops from here.

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is certainly a much-anticipated entry into both the Disney/Marvel catalog and the summer Box Office. Much anticipated as a three-pronged sequel, tying together loose ends from Loki and WandaVision as well as Spider-Man: No Way Home, it is anticipated as one of the biggest performers of the 2022 summer season. Blake & Wang P.A entertainment attorney, Brandon Blake, looks at its starting potential, and how it weighed against reality. 

Key Domestic Start

This will also be one of the widest rollouts of the post-pandemic era, with 4,400 domestic theaters hosting the film. With this in mind, a target of $160M to $180M was set for its domestic opening. It still managed to outperform the target, netting $185M domestically in its opening weekend. This catapults it to the second-best Box Office debut of the current era, with only Spider-Man: No Way Home to beat it. 

Weekend pre-sales for the U.S and Canada stood at $60M, placing it ahead of The Batman at the same point in its sales cycle. However, the bulk of these were for Thursday night, not the opening weekend, which does suggest a little frontloading. All the same, it’s an impressive achievement.

Chasing $300M Globally

How likely was it to achieve these targets? That heavily depends on how compelling it is among non-Marvel fans- to which the answer was, apparently, very. It was hoped that the addition of Wanda to the lineup, played by Elizabeth Olsen, could give it pulling power among younger women, a demographic often missed by the MCU titles. The return of Sam Raimi to the director’s chair was anticipated as another drawcard. 

Additionally, the film was hoping to add at least another $140M to its international openings. This was projected without a release in China and Russia. It’s also highly unlikely to gain much traction in the Middle East, with open LGBTQ elements in the film’s storyline.

And it has managed to deliver. Unlike domestic figures, which remained more-or-less in the target range, it has managed to pull another $262.4M internationally, giving it an impressive $450M opening weekend globally, and putting it in the spotlight as the second-highest global opening of the pandemic era to date. 

The American Film Market, set for November 1st through 6th this year, has confirmed that it will return to a fully in-person event. This welcome return to business as usual is a trend we will undoubtedly see accelerate for the remaining 2022 and 2023 seasons across the industry. Entertainment lawyer with Blake & Wang P.A, Brandon Blake, brings us the latest buzz.

Two Years Online

The AFM, produced by the Independent Film & Television Alliance, has spent two years digital due to pandemic interruptions. Traditionally housed at the Loews Santa Monica Beach Hotel for the last three decades, it typically clocks over 7,000 industry professionals, and representatives from more than 70 countries. Something of a trade show for distribution and production deals in the indie environment, it also brings in over $1B in deals a year, so this is great news for the industry overall. It’s great to get back to normal.

Mounting Excitement

This will also be the 43rd year for the festival, and while there’s still a lot of the year to go before we get there, excitement over the in-person announcement has been felt already. The pandemic may not be completely old history just yet, but the absence of the in-person buzz through a variety of the top festivals and markets has been notable.

Many festivals have done their best to produce a comparable online experience, and we can’t fault their attempts to do the best with what was safe and available. But there’s something about the ability to network, connect, and share in person that makes the experience that much more visceral. If we see some interesting new integrations of technology into the in-person environment, so much the better.

It seems that in-person events are returning in force for the independent film industry, and we’re looking forward to celebrating the full festival experience at the AFM this year.

AT&T have reported significant subscriber growth for HBO Max in one of their last acts for the now officially spun-off Warner Media streaming platform this week. Entertainment lawyer at Blake & Wang P.A, Brandon Blake, has the news for us.

Last Report

As mentioned, this will be the last time we hear from AT&T regarding what once was WarnerMedia, as the long-anticipated merger with Discovery to form the brand new entity Warner Bros Discovery, has recently completed. Their Q2 earnings report will come to us from the new entity, of course.

What will be intriguing to many, however, is whether this might also be the last time we hear from HBO Max as a single entity. With the merger bringing both Discovery + and HBO Max into the fold, it has been announced that the two will merge, but no timeline has yet been given.

Three Million New Subscribers

HBO and HBO Max have a combined streaming subscription total of 76.8M as at the end of Q1 2022, a rise of 3M from the previous quarter. It’s also a 12.8M year-on-year increase. AT&T have always given us the ARPU, or average revenue per user, for domestic subscribers too. Here we see a 9c increase to $11.24 for the quarter.

It’s hard not to position this modest, but appreciable, growth against the news that Netflix suffered its first subscriber loss in over a decade in the same quarter. Coupled with a disappointing earnings report, this has seen its stock plunge, losing over a third of value and tanking $50B from its market cap last Wednesday. The highly obvious factors of increased competitors and pandemic recovery were blamed.

Things certainly seem to be looking up for the streamer, which has been fairly insignificant compared to competitors to date. Where to from here? It will be interesting to see if the promised merger with Discovery+ lives up to the market hype as the ‘next Disney+’ after all.

In news that’s not entirely unexpected after critical panning, we’ve seen a softer Box Office than anticipated for both Morbius and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. Brandon Blake, entertainment lawyer and our industry insider from Blake & Wang P.A, takes a look at the figures.

Morbius Nosedives

Sadly, Morbius currently holds a record no superhero movie needs- one of the sharpest drop-offs from opening weekend we’ve seen in a long while. Dipping 74% lower than last weekend, it pulled in a meager $10.2M after its strong debut, bringing its ten-day total to $57.7M. This ‘outperforms’ even notorious Box Office dropouts like Batman v Superman, Hulk, and Fantastic Four. Only long-forgotten 1997 superhero offering, Steel, which dropped from an $800K-ish debut to a tiny $191K in weekend two, managed worse. 

So no, sadly. The somewhat buoyant idea that this movie would perform better with audiences than critics, propped up by a decent opening weekend, hasn’t panned out either. It’s hard not to see this one as a bust. The notion that every Spider Man villain needs their own spin-off movie, or that it can perform on Venom levels, is hopefully put to bed for good. 

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore Starts Soft Overseas

The newest in the Fantastic Beasts franchise has had a soft international start, too, though still managing $58M. Some of it can be written off to COVID closures in China, though a lot is also market boredom with once-loved franchises there, too. However, while Japanese markets performed equivalent to the previous franchise installment, takings were halved from the UK, too. Even the ever-nostalgic Millennials seem to finally be tiring of the same old wizardly battles.

Not that it was bad news for the Box Office overall. Despite these two flunking out of the class, we saw commendable enough performances from The Batman and The Lost City, which was expected to have sunk into obscurity by now. Add a decent showing from Sonic 2, a solid performance from Uncharted, and the still-present loom of Spider-Man: No Way Home to Sing 2’s continued strong presence and an oddly strong showing from R-rated zombie romp, X, and the news wasn’t bad for the Box Office overall. It might just be time to put a cap on the superhero farming until a worthy target presents itself.