The current Oscar race looks set to go to the wire, at least if the boosted performance of several of its indie contenders is anything to go by. Under any Oscar conditions, The Zone of Interest would have a keen advantage in both subject matter and distribution. It certainly hasn’t been overlooked, with 5 shiny nominations in the bag and a distributor who took home the Best Picture crown last year. This year is seeing some amazingly orchestrated Oscar campaigns from indie titles, however, including expanded releases in the run-up to the ceremony. Our Blake & Wang P.A the. entertainment attorney in Los Angeles, Brandon Blake, examines The Zone of Interest’s current performance.

Brandon Blake

Strong Awards Performance

In the run-up to the Oscars, The Zone of Interest has had a stunning awards season run. With an impressive number of BAFTAs now in the bag, it has done fantastically at the London Film Critics Circle Awards and many more, too. The Oscars is an arena in which ‘recency [1] bias’, or being the last watched film by the voting panel, is known to play a role. This is likely why A24 chose to hold the film until a mid-December release, despite it winning the Grand Prix at Cannes in May and performing strongly through the fall festivals. This is also the reason why it was pushed out to escape the Poor Things release weekend it was originally scheduled for. Let’s not even mention that Cannes prominence is always helpful in an Oscar campaign.

Strong Box Office Performance

Foreign-language films with dark subjects aren’t usually box office hits. However, The Zone of Interest has also managed a strong release performance and, surprisingly, performed well among younger audiences as well. It is still going strong in many big markets, too, with a domestic gross of around $4.6M. However, Parasite is still the only foreign-language film to take home the Oscar crown. Does The Zone of Interest have what it takes to become No. 2? Until the March 11 ceremony, we can only speculate. Its chances are looking good, however.

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As the Oscar ceremony draws ever-nearer (and with nominations now officially in the bag), we’ve seen an impressive slate of indie Oscar hopefuls expanding their theatrical footprints in the hopes one last big push can give their profiles a boost. Entertainment attorney Brandon Blake, from Blake & Wang P.A., gives us the rundown on the planned expansions.

Brandon Blake

Oscar Footprint Expands

While Oppenheimer likely won’t shake its unique spot in the collective consciousness much with another Imax run, it’s far from the only Oscar-hopeful trying to keep its name in lights over the next few weeks. What could be of interest to cinephiles, however, is that it will also be playing in an iconic 70mm release at selected theaters.

Poor Things, which is in contention for the Best Film category as well as multiple others, will expand its theatrical footprint to 2,226 screens. It had previously been playing on 1,400. Behind Oppenheimer, it is the most nominated movie this season. American Fiction, another Best Picture hopeful, will also be expanding from its current 850 theaters to almost double- 1,500.

From Awards to Audiences

Nor is it the only Oscar-nominated indie hoping for a last-minute theatrical boost. The Holdovers will be increasing its footprint massively- up to 1,235 screens from 127. It’s been enjoying a slow, but steady, rollout since its release at the end of October last year. While Anatomy of a Fall may not need the boost in prominence after a highly successful awards season, it’s not taking any chances either. It will now be found on 400 screens, a marked increase from its current 15! The Zone of Interest will also expand from 82 to 311 screens. It also has a self-release from A24 set for the UK this week. Rounding out the list, we have Past Lives, which was first released in June 2023, returning to 320 theaters this weekend to boost its Oscar campaign (and viewers’ memories).

The run-up to the Oscars is always an exciting time for films that otherwise don’t rely heavily on a mainstream theatrical release. Will this last-minute campaigning impact the results? We’ll have to wait for the ceremony to see!

Sometimes it is the behind-the-scenes efforts that matter most in a motion picture’s life cycle. Namely, the distribution it chooses and the traction that distribution can earn it. With this year’s Oscar nominations finally announced, there are some interesting patterns to note. Our Blake & Wang P.A. entertainment attorney, Brandon Blake, lifts the curtain on some of the behind-the-scenes choices that launched this year’s successful Oscar campaigns.

Brandon Blake

The Power of Good Distribution

A brilliant release strategy can be the make-or-break point for award-season hopefuls. One need only glance at the cataclysmic successes of both Barbie and Oppenheimer last year to see that. There may be no Best Distributor category for the Oscars, but if there were, this year would see two strong contenders. Netflix, and the Disney juggernaut. Disney has a hand in the distribution of 20 nominations, 12 for Searchlight, 2 for 20th Century Studios, and a further 6 across their other, smaller distribution arms.

Then there is Netflix. Even without an impressive stable of brands like Disney, it is responsible for distribution across 18 nominations, including Maestro’s high-profile nomination for Best Picture. Although the theatrical releases for most of these nominations were small on the scale of things, it’s hard not to feel they had an impact. Unsurprisingly, Maestro had the strongest distribution of the bunch.

Streaming: No Longer an Oscar Issue

Whereas a streaming release was once the death of any Oscar hopeful, this year it is clear that stigma is a thing of the past. Netflix now has a 6-year track record in the Best Picture category. While it is sad that they have yet to engage meaningfully with a combined theatrical/streaming release model- Netflix theatrical releases are mediocre at best- clearly they have got critics and nominations committees to pay attention.

There is one key question remaining, however. Are ‘Oscar-bait’ pictures still worth investing in? They are typically poor performers by more statistical measurements, making them less attractive to many streaming platforms than easy, high-performing fare. All the same, it is good to see this forward-looking evolution in the industry, and that the days of streaming stigma in the award’s race are long in the past.

With sleeper hit Godzilla Minus One still wowing box office audiences, it’s been a great period for limited release and special titles. Even in wide-release markets! It’s always good to see the non-tentpole segment of the market have its day in the sun, so Blake & Wang P.A. entertainment lawyer in the USA, Brandon Blake, is here to share more good news.

Brandon Blake

Godzilla Stomps to Victory

To date, Godzilla Minus One has a global cume of almost $51M, having added another juicy $853k to the kitty this past weekend. This also earns it the crown as the highest-grossing Japanese language release in the domestic market. That’s across animation and live-action, note! It also slips into a very respectable 5th spot on the list of best-performing non-English titles overall. It’s anticipated that it will reach the $100M mark globally before the end of its run. For a picture no one took seriously until its massive impact on the December box office, that’s fantastic.

The Oscars Rear Their Head

Alongside the iconic Japanese lizard, this was a week where we saw several pictures expand their theatrical footprint. Courting Oscar attention through the awards season, we assume. A24’s Zone of Interest continues to perform strongly, with a $300k taking pushing its cume to date over $1M. While its run will stay limited, it has branched out from 4 screens to 25, and we may see more added. Surprisingly for some rather heavy subject matter, this film has been performing fantastically among the under-35 market.

The Iron Claw pulled in another couple of million over 1,592 screens. While its global cume of $30M may not be the largest we’ve seen, keep in mind the movie was made for under $20M. This is the sixth-largest domestic gross for A24, and it is performing fantastically on CinemaScore among viewers, too.  American Fiction, Poor Things, and All of Us Strangers also managed thoroughly respectable weekends for a specialty box office that’s looking stronger than ever. Let’s hope to see that impetus continue throughout the year.

A team of UK-based producers has launched a new indie financing fund that will help boost funding for independent TV and film producers in the country. Our local entertainment lawyer, Brandon Blake of Blake & Wang P.A. is here to share the news.

Brandon Blake

Unusual Source, Unusual Candidates

Evan Leighton-Davis and Ben Bond, both UK-based producers, are the originators of the new financing opportunity, to be called Heartseeker Media. They will be backed by a rather unusual, but growing, funding source for the entertainment industry- private equity investors. In this case, mostly local high-net-worth supporters.

Equally unusual for these sorts of funds, it will offer developmental funding to independent producers, spanning the $100,000 to $1,000,000 range. Their first suite of projects includes period drama Monstrous Beauty, horror The Severed Sun, and drama West the Road. The Severed Sun will be the first of those to see screen time, with shooting already wrapped.

Full Indie Slates

At its core, Heartseeker seeks to boost the development of fuller indie slates from newer production teams. Development money like this is critical to give directors, producers, and writers on the indie side of the industry the space and funding to properly develop materials instead of rushing them to production.

The fund is slated to help out 6-10 productions a year, with a focus on dramas and genre material.

As the 2023 box office rather aptly demonstrated, there is still a lot of market for independent and small-scale films at the box office. Working outside of established studio norms, however, finding the budget and backing to truly bring these stories to life has been an industry issue as long as it has existed. It’s always nice to see another funding source looking to work with independent producers to breathe life into these projects. We will be watching what comes from Heartseeker’s funding with great interest indeed.

Looking back to the final box office weekend of 2023, it’s clear that originality won the day. With only one sequel and two franchise titles (Aquaman 2 and the Hunger Games prequel) in the top 10 for the weekend, and dull performances from both, it was a weekend where fresh, new stories helped save the day. Brandon Blake, our entertainment lawyer from Blake & Wang P.A., celebrates the films that helped us cross the coveted $9B mark in the closing moments of the year.

Brandon Blake

Originality as a Drawcard

When we were discussing the December box office, few saw the potential for Wonka, then in its third week, to vastly outperform the shiny new release of Aquaman 2. However, taking $24M over the three days, it managed to stand strong in the number 1 position. Yes, $24M for the post-Christmas holiday weekend isn’t the best figure we’ve ever seen, but in a year as unprecedented as 2023, let’s not split hairs. With a budget of $125M to recoup, Wonka is well on the way to passing $200M domestically and $500M globally by the end of its theatrical run, which is more than satisfactory.

In comparison, Aquaman 2 took just $19.5M in its second release week, with a budget of $205M to recoup. The Color Purple did well, with $45M in its first week, despite a more limited release scope than the other popular titles.

The Little Hits That Could

But despite some solid takings from these larger-budget productions, the $9B box office has a lot of thanks to give to two breakout hits. The Boy and the Heron from Studio Ghibli, which we always knew was going to attract some buzz. And the absolutely unexpected success of Godzilla Minus Zero. Without these two unexpected powerhouses continuing to hold as they did, we would not have crossed the finish line with that $9B in the kitty.

December 2023 proved to be a juggernaut of a month for specialized releases, with other small- and medium-sized releases holding well and contributing their bit. All in all, while it may not quite have been the December we predicted, they came together to make it one to remember.

Exclusive streaming deals are out, and the linear model of licensing is back. At least so it seems! As what some are calling the ‘blank check’ era of streaming draws to its definitive close, more and more studios are realizing the value of what they already have, as well as the lure of shiny new properties. Our local entertainment lawyer Los Angeles, Blake & Wang P.A.’s Brandon Blake, looks at this thorny new issue in more depth.

Brandon Blake

Licensing: A Model to Keep Revenue Flowing 

The issue of ‘lost shows’- shows that run on an exclusive streaming platform only to disappear from all accessibility after that initial run- is one that has been raised many times as the streaming era passes its infancy and establishes itself. Not only does this have knock-on effects on the preservation of these shows, it is also a source of frustration for viewers. Additionally, this sometimes ruthless removal of ‘big’ content has led to a public perception against streaming. Although not accurate- of the seven biggest streamers using SVOD models, only Amazon Prime Video has had its catalog shrink in the last 2 years- there is still a perception that it is being done to create ‘artificial scarcity’ and drive up subscription prices. 2023’s experience seems to have backed this, with acquired titles dominating the streaming Top 10 lists. Let’s also not lose sight of the fact that Netflix built its reputation on the back of being ‘the place to find shows traditional networks weren’t running’. 

Balance Needed

However, of those acquired titles, there is definitely some ‘top loading’. Only 1,000 of the best-performing titles made up 70% of the streaming view time. On the flip side, niche streamers like Roku and Pluto have done well in buying up more obscure programming (that can be licensed cheaply) and selling ad inventory to show it. In many ways, it works- viewers want something, advertisers have the security of a ‘known’ item, and everyone wins.

So, as always, it isn’t an easy answer. Simply loading up libraries with any old title isn’t a shortcut to more views and revenue. But as streamers start to warm up to the idea of sharing IPs across platforms, there’s a lucrative new niche to be explored. 

The strikes are finally over- now what? For Los Angeles, which saw a massive downturn in economic activity for the city as a knock-on effect from the strikes, the answer is less, ‘business as usual’ and more ‘bring us your work- all of it’. In the hopes of boosting cash-generating activities from its primary business, we’ve seen the Los Angeles City Council vote to expedite entertainment projects using the LA area. Blake & Wang P.A. entertainment lawyer, Brandon Blake, is here with the exciting news.

Brandon Blake

Unanimous Vote

Unusual as it is in any political arena, the vote passed unanimously, with all 14 attending council members voting for the new resolution. Now, they’re headhunting policy issues and other resource bottlenecks that could be holding back the local TV and film production industry. Once this research is presented- which should be within the next two weeks- the intent is to put any discoveries into action. 

Currently, acquiring permits to film in the city is one of the anticipated points for revision. After all, if a producer can’t pull the permit they need fast enough in one area, they will take their business elsewhere- and with it, the jobs and economic boost that could have come.

This new motion pairs up with one from the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, again passed unanimously, to consult with FlimLA on an economic development firm to help boost location interest in LA once again.

Six Weeks Post-Strike

While the major focus of the 118-day SAG-AFTRA strike action has been the industry workers directly affected, no one can deny that the Hollywood shutdown has had a ton of knock-on impacts on prime filming destinations like Los Angeles. Small businesses in these locales typically rely heavily on the increased foot traffic and boosted business having a production in town can bring.

So for location scouts looking for the ideal filming destination in 2024, LA’s star is set to rise once again. We’ll be keeping a careful eye on further developments arising from these new economically-stimulating measures.

With the much-welcomed news that SAG-AFTRA has ratified their new 3-year contract deal with the AMPTP, it is time to look ahead to Berlin’s European Film Market, the first strike-free film market we will see. Blake & Wang P.A. entertainment lawyer in USA, Brandon Blake, sets the scene.

Brandon Blake

A Project Bonanza

As we finally see not only writers but also actors get back to work post-strike, the European Film Market is expected to benefit from a crop of new projects delayed or postponed under this year’s uncertain strike environment. This climate of anticipation is being boosted by some promising feedback from buyers and sales agents who held back projects in the uncertainty of the SAG-AFTRA waivers that were offered.

This would be a welcome indie industry pick-me-up after dull deal making at both the Toronto Film Festival and American Film Market this year.

Sold-Out Spaces

Despite being almost two months out from the market, reports are that exhibition space is already nearly sold out, with 11,500 participants expected. The 2024 festival has already added a new ‘pop-up’ space, the Gropius Dome, to facilitate networking and get-togethers. This will also be the inaugural year for the AfroBerlin platform, focusing on the African film industry and the increasing push for locally-made, internationally appealing content.

Additionally, we will see ‘Reel Time’ launch a day before the event, offering promo reels of upcoming and latest titles as a pre-market show. These will be themed by genre and overall themes like arthouse, animation, and horror. Italy is set to be the ‘country of focus’ for the special, highlighting the Italian film industry.

Let’s hope to see the first strike-free film festival on the industry’s calendar hit all the right notes with sellers and buyers alike, to pave the way for a 2024 in which the indie film industry can get back to what it does best without labor woes to hinder it.