Netflix announced a very splashy second quarter, with subscriber numbers and profits both up. After a 2022 packed with mishaps, it’s sure to impress. However, most of this new surge can be laid at the door of their now-notorious password-sharing crackdown rather than any real long-term growth, and it’s important not to get too carried away. Entertainment attorney Brandon Blake, from Blake & Wang P.A., has the full story.

Strong Gains

Their report reveals 5.9M new paying subscribers, alongside $8.2B in revenue and a net income of $1.5B. The bulk of this has been built from their launch of ‘paid sharing’, or the crackdown on the previous free account sharing outside of a single household. Reportedly, cancellations have been low despite the knock to sentiment the crackdown caused.

Netflix’s ad-supported plan continues to do well, too, although it is very much still in its infancy regarding its effect on their bottom line. We can assume the near-global withdrawal of their cheapest non-ad-supported plan in recent months is intended to force budget subscribers to choose the ad-supported plan. This returns Netflix to its rather enviable position in the streaming markets as the only streamer fully in the black, with most others targeting 2024 (at the earliest) for true profitability.

A Note of Caution

Despite an incredibly self-congratulatory accompanying earnings call for the great results, however, it’s worth remembering that some of this sudden resurgence to profitable glory is built off of the back of two circumstances that won’t generate repeat numbers going forward.

Firstly, the lower content costs due to the strike-induced pauses on productions has greatly boosted free cash flow. But without content, there is nothing to drive new subscriptions. Secondly, many of those subscriptions are ‘forced’ from the pool of those who were sharing with others- not a permanently mineable resource, and one that will run dry before the end of the year.

The numbers look great and are worth some celebration. But it’s also worth remembering that this quarter’s results are a little less about smart management and a little more about a confluence of unusual situations that will not sustain growth forever.

With the June box office proving more lackluster than hoped, and the failure of several key films to net the grosses initially hoped for, there’s an immense pressure of July to perform. While the latest Mission:Impossible, Barbie, and Oppenheimer should all do well, it does pay not to count your chickens before they hatch- especially for some who seem to be expecting velociraptors from those chicken eggs, too! Brandon Blake, entertainment attorney with Blake & Wang P.A, takes a realistic look at the most promising of July’s slate.

Mission: Possible, But Be Realistic

The latest Mission: Impossible certainly has the potential to be a top-scorer for the year. It has strong reviews, lingering goodwill for Tom Cruise after Top Gun last year, and tons of action. International markets should be receptive enough to the genre that domestic performance won’t be all. And Paramount are really milking every way to maximize that gross with the film’s extended previews.

With two films unexpectedly pulling in upwards of $400M (Spider-Man) and $550M (Super Mario Bros) this year, and an utterly enormous marketing budget for this film, however (triple the two preceding movies), it’s easy to start setting unrealistic expectations. This summer has been a lesson in how franchise titles can fall short when too much high-end expectation is placed on them. Mission Impossible will also have second-week competition from ‘Barbenheimer’, as the duo are being called, and this has been a year of quick falloffs.

‘Barbenheimer’: Too Much or Not?

Then we have the two major non-franchise titles that have managed to stir up immense interest and surprising pre-release appeal. Especially as the cultural zeitgeist has pinned them together on the basis of…well, nothing much but their joint release date and amusingly antithetical subject matter. As marketing success stories go, it’s been great.

But both have challenges. Each lacks the ‘four quadrants’ (total demographic appeal). Comedy is a tricky sell to balance. Oppenheimer’s long run time and artistic direction could be challenging. Yet both have fantastic directing teams, and offer some novelty in a market getting resistant to regurgitated IPs. Currently, Barbie is expected to double Oppenheimer’s takings- and that would actually be a solid performance from both, especially if we do see the $100M vs $50M opening as expected.

So let’s be real- these are 3 solid films which will undoubtedly perform well. The projected $300M (Mission Impossible) and $200M for the others would be a great box office contribution. Overperformance would be even better, but even if it doesn’t happen, these will not be ‘failures’ for not topping Super Mario Bros’ unprecedented climb up the charts this year. Hope and optimism is great, but let’s also stay centered and realistic. The box office will get a nice boost from a solid slate of films people have actually gotten excited about- and even if that isn’t quite the coveted 2019 summer benchmark, it’s still great news overall for the theatrical recovery.

Will they strike, or won’t they? For many key players in the entertainment landscape, the uncertainty around SAG-AFTRA’s contract talks for its TV and theatrical agreements is top of mind currently. Especially as the already-extended deadline for negotiations looms large. Blake & Wang P.A’s Brandon Blake, our entertainment attorney and local industry expert, looks more closely at where we stand so far.

Deadline Extension

The original deadline for contract negotiations between SAG-AFTRA and the largest of the streamers and studios was June 30. This was extended a few weeks ago until July 12 at midnight. And with no update in sight, it seems like this one, too, may go to the wire.

Of course, that doesn’t mean it will fail. While the WGA voted to embark on strike action after its own negotiations failed on May 1, we have also seen the DGA manage to make a (quite literally) last minute deal for their contract renegotiations shortly afterwards. However, it does seem that SAG-AFTRA are in agreement on strike action should the contract negotiations fail by the extended deadline. Should they, too, head to the picket lines, this would be the first time we’ve seen them target major companies in about 40 years.

Extension, Not Weakness

The union’s negotiators were keen to emphasize that the extension was ‘not a sign of weakness’, but rather intended to give some breathing room to the unusually short timeframe for renegotiation as it originally stood. Talks for renegotiation only opened on June 7, and with a wealth of issues to tackle, including wage floors, the thorny issue of AI, controversies over self-taped auditions and the usual eye towards pension, retirement, and health coverage, the need for more negotiating time is easy to understand.

With 98% of voting members authorizing strike action if a deal cannot be struck, it’s clear that union members want not just a ‘good’ deal, but one which can honestly be called transformative. Whether they will get it, or whether we will see actors join their writer counterparts on the picket line, remains to be seen.

With very little fanfare at all, Netflix has now completely removed their basic subscription option for Canadian subscribers. It’s an interesting twist on their year of plan redevelopment globally. Brandon Blake, our entertainment attorney from Blake & Wang P.A, has the full details.

No More Cheap Version Without Ads

By axing the ‘basic’ tier, currently priced at $9.99, the streamer’s answer seems pretty clear. New subscribers need to pay for the premium tier, or suffer through ads. There will be no middle ground for budget-conscious consumers.

For those already on the ‘basic’ tier, they can stay there until plan cancellation or a choice to move plans. For now, this seems to be a Canadian-only choice, with no news about an impending rollout anywhere else. Then again, there was no real news about this shift announced, either.

Market of Change

Perhaps it is worth taking this moment to remember that Canada was one of the first points of introduction for the newer Netflix ad-supported tier. It was also one of the first markets where we saw their password-sharing crackdown roll out. At this point it is no secret that they see the local as a good ‘test market’, of sorts, for the larger US domestic market, with similar interests and demographics. And at a time where Wall Street, particularly, is looking for profitability and revenue growth over other markers, the swing against password sharing is working well. Uptake of new subscriptions has boomed across the board as people lose access to shared subscriptions.

Is it a good sign for longer term growth, however? That will very much remain to be seen, in a year where all the major streaming players are doing what they can to grasp a slice of that profitability pie.

As streamers go, Netflix has always played close to its chest with its coveted viewership data. Now, with a shift in how they judge and report what data metrics we do receive from them, there could be a mass shakeup in viewership stats for their programming and other data. Blake & Wang P.A’s Brandon Blake, our expert entertainment lawyer, breaks the change down.

A Tech-Based Change

Instead of the hours viewed, a model which has been in play for Netflix and other streaming entities on platforms like Nielsen for upward of a decade at this point, Netflix will now simply report ‘views’. You don’t need much tech-savvy to recognize that as a term more commonly used on platforms like Instagram and YouTube then in Hollywood, and we can only assume that homogenisation is the idea behind it.

These new ‘views’ will be defined as the hours viewed divided by the total runtime of the content. While Netflix will still be reporting on the hours viewed model for some products, their Top 10 rankings and Most Popular lists will now use the new metric. We’ve also seen them expand their measurement window from the current 28 days to a broader 91 days, something that’s hoped to give their content more time to ‘grow’ with audiences.

Changed Rankings

This shift in how they use data has already significantly changed how those two lists appear. While Squid Game remains their most popular series to date, and Dahmer clung on to its third-place spot, Bridgerton pushed Queen Charlotte out of the number 4 spot, and both The Queen’s Gambit and The Watcher take new spots. Likewise, Inventing Anna and Lucifer have slunk out of sight. Wednesday zooms past Stranger Things 4 to take the title of most popular English-language series to date.

The move should correct some issues with the hours viewed model, however- namely allowing easier comparisons with other companies’ products as well as reducing the advantage longer-format content has over items like films and shorter series. It should also give series without a strong IP a good boost in the rankings, allowing it to increase organically in popularity over time. It’s not without pitfalls- namely the big one of assuming every user accessing content finishes it, so there’s in-built view count inflation. But it does better align with how third-parties like Nielsen report their data, which is a great development to see.

As Nielsen continues to reinvent and reestablish itself in a changing media market, what can we glean from its latest Top 10 charts? Blake & Wang P.A entertainment lawyer, Brandon Blake, walks us through the May 15-21 results.

Ted Lasso Takes a Bow

In many ways, the success of Ted Lasso for Apple TV+ was one of its breakout moments, even attracting awards attention. With the Season 3 finale looming large, especially as it could be the last for the series, it’s unsurprising to see it make an entrance into the Nielsen data, taking the 4th slot with 769M minutes viewed- its highest entrance to date. That may, of course, change quickly when we hit the actual finale!

Surprisingly, after a bit of a box office flop, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania also made its way to No 5 for Disney+ at 766M minutes, not bad for a film.

Netflix Tops, Again

Both Queen Charlotte, the Bridgerton spinoff, and new IP The Mother performed outstandingly well for Netflix, taking the No 2 (1.1B minutes) and No 1 (1.2B minutes) slots respectively. More unusually, NCIS took No 3 for both Netflix and Paramount+, as a dual-streamed program. We see a similar three-way split for S.W.A.T lower on the list (No 8), again showing across Netflix, Hulu, and Paramount+. Disney+’s Bluey is the only non-Netflix title lower on the list, with Cocomelon, A Man Called Otto, and Queer Eye finishing the Top 10 for them.

On the so-called ‘acquired programming list, we see another win for Prime Video with the consistent performer The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, taking No 5 for that category and 443M minutes. Succession, unsurprisingly, continued to tick up with 550M minutes- and that is on HBO Max (now just Max) alone, without the HBO viewership considered as Nielsen doesn’t track it. Amazon’s Air also managed to make a solid showing at the No. 6 slot and 404M viewing minutes.

All in all, this particular Nielsen week was a grand one for Netflix despite Ted Lasso’s record, indicative of the firm hold the streaming platform still has on the market.

It’s strike season in Hollywood, or so it seems. With the WGA strike entering its seventh week on the picket lines, and the DGA only narrowly avoiding joining them with a last-minute deal last week, attention has now turned to SAG-AFTRA. And one thing is clear- if the bargaining parties can’t reach a deal by the June 30 expiration of their existing contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) they, too, will be on strike. Entertainment lawyer Brandon Blake, with Blake & Wang P.A, explains this development.

Vote Passes at 98%

Negotiators received an overwhelming positive vote from their members for a work stoppage should negotiations fail, with fractionally less than 98% voting for a strike authorization. This doesn’t immediately trigger a strike, however. It simply means that negotiators have the power to enforce a work stoppage if their remaining time at the bargaining table fails to result in an approved resolution.

It is worth noting that 65,000 SAG-AFTRA members voted on this resolution- about a 48% turnout. However, this is a particularly large and rambling union, and it is one of the highest voter turnouts of recent years- the 2020 contract ratification only attracted 27%. It’s worth noting that this high strike authorization vote echoes that received by the WGA before their negotiations failed.

Can a Deal Be Reached?

Whether or not SAG-AFTRA will find themselves on strike is currently a million-dollar question for the industry. They have been very vocal in supporting the striking writer’s of the WGA. Yet so was the DGA, and they’ve managed to secure a future-forward contract for their members. The AMPTP also seems keen to head this strike off, which may give more negotiation power. SAG-AFTRA have only 3 weeks to seal a deal before their existing contract expires, in one of the most truncated negotiation periods of recent years. Generative AI usage and residual negotiations are expected to be the key sticking points in this round of talks.

For now, all we can do is wait and see what comes from the bargaining table- but this is one round of negotiations all eyes are likely to be watching, for sure.

We recently looked at a juicy new set of tax incentives on the table for shows filmed in the New York area. However, the New York State legislature this week called on the AMPTP to return swiftly to the bargaining table with the WGA with a veiled threat that the strike’s outcome could affect future funding of the tax incentive program. Blake & Wang P.A entertainment lawyer, Brandon Blake, has all the news.

Expanded Program

New York expanded their film incentives program from $400M to $700M as part of the state budget approved in April 2023. The recent threat is backed by 20 state senators and 34 members of the state Assembly, and encourages the AMPTP to return to the bargaining table as soon as possible, echoing many of the same talking points we’ve seen the WGA themselves raise since the strike began.

‘Essential to Well-Being’

The communication is surprisingly strongly worded, too, including the following statement:

“It is unacceptable for writers to have their earnings decline, in some instances as much as 23%, inflation-adjusted, in the last ten years while studio, network, and streaming companies’ profits soar.”

In the statement, they circle back to the number of tax dollars spent on AMPTP projects in the state, and lampoon the association for utilizing these credits but seeming unwilling to enter into ‘fair collective bargaining agreements.’ They also cite the number of WGA members living and working in the NYC area, and the importance of these careers to the state, and state:

“We find it distasteful that companies insist on hiring writers on a day-to-day basis in a race to the bottom to make employment in this area akin to the gig industry rather than treating members of the Writers Guild of America as the professionals they are.”

The message ends with a call to return to the bargaining table with a fair mindset on all sides. It’s perhaps the most powerful independent statement on the state of the striking industry we’ve seen to date. Will it have an impact? Dangling the future of their tax incentive program as bait may well get some attention, but so far, there seems to be little progress in ending the stalemate. We’ll keep you updated as things change.

2022 was not Netflix’s year. Despite the setbacks, however, it seems their decision to add an ad-supported tier to their subscription packages could be paying off in spades. With over 5M active monthly users for the new tier, it was a critical focus of their first TV Upfront presentation- and seems to have won Wall Street approval, too. Brandon Blake, entertainment lawyer Los Angeles with Blake & Wang P.A, has all the news.

Stock Price Jump

After their Upfronts presentation, despite a change to a virtual event at the last minute, Netflix stock jumped a rather mighty 9%. It closed at $371.29 on the back of supportive subscriber numbers and major growth for the new tier. Of course, it’s worth noting that those numbers are 5M active monthly accounts, not actual subscriber numbers- but then, Netflix has never been comfortable discussing its subscriber base in too much data-driven detail. And no doubt advertisers looking for a solid partner will be taking note regardless.

Other Positive Metrics

The news that over 25% of new Netflix subscriptions, with a median age of 34-prime targets for ad marketing-  are going to the cheaper ad-supported tier will be cheering news for Wall Street, too. Especially now the era of constantly booming subscription numbers is well and truly bust. That’s a lot of traction to gain in only half a year of availability, especially with a notoriously rocky start.

On the ad member side, we’ve heard that it has ‘more than doubled’ this year alone. Interestingly, Netflix has managed this off the back of a programming lineup with zero live marquee sports programming, too- something that has become a key hope for subscription increases on other streaming platforms.

While there’s still a long way to go before Netflix recovers the peak of its share price, let alone public goodwill, it seems they launched their ad-supported tier at the perfect time for the market. And in a year riddled with advertising and subscription downturns both, that- and Netflix’s notoriety as one of the few streamers operating in the black- is news worth celebrating.