Disney + has been something of a darling of the post-pandemic streaming age, leaping to the forefront of streaming services despite being a relative neonate next to Netflix and others. Yet, despite this fast climb to the top and a solid, if unexciting Q3 result, we’re finally seeing some push back on claimed growth potential from Wall Street investors. Entertainment lawyer with Blake & Wang P.A, Brandon Blake, guides us through the details.  

Ambitious 2024 targets

Financial observers are calling into question the projected subscriber growth target for 2024 of 230 million to 260 million subscribers. The streaming giant currently sits at 116 million paying subscribers globally, an impressive gain in a little more than a year of operation. 

Despite this boom, we’ve seen downgrades on the previously bullish sentiment around Disney. Q3 gains suggest ‘low single-digit millions’ for new subscriber growth, where Wall Street sentiments would have needed around 17 million to deliver on previous optimism.

Reasonable growth

Of course, there are good reasons for the slow uptake. Indian subscriber growth slowed after it was announced the cricket season (streamed on Disney in India) would not go ahead. There have also been delays to their Latin American rollout, and other recent production delays. 

However, analysts feel this is indicative of a longer-term pattern. In particular, they highlight a need for greater content spending and a need to onboard older households if Disney+ is to thrive. This has seen downgrades in predicted share price ranging from $13 (to $203 from Barclays) to $35 (to $175 from Barclays). 

To meet their ambitious milestone, Disney + would need to more than double its current growth pace, which would bring it into line with Netflix’s current expansion rate. Can it be done? We’ve seen weirder things happen. For now, however, it seems Wall Street isn’t convinced. 

With 3rd quarter numbers ow being released, how as HBO Max fair after its controversial exit from Amazon Prime Video earlier this year? We turned to Brandon Blake, a skilled entertainment lawyer with decades of experience in the entertainment business, for his analysis of the stats.

As expected, domestic subscribers took a heavy loss with the parting of ways. We see roughly 1.8M US subscriptions lost- compensated for by a 1.9M rise in international subscribers. The telecom giant also reported overall revenue just shy of $40B, a reduction of 6%. This is being pinned on the divestiture of DirecTV, however, not the Amazon Prime exit itself. Interestingly, earnings per share doubled from 2020. Earnings topped average estimates, while the overall revenue figures are either spot-on predictions or ever-so-slightly below. 

Overall, these are not bad statistics, especially given the withdrawal. At this time last year, they sat at 38M subscribers domestically, showing a very sluggish start heavily impacted by the virus. NOr do they see the action slowing- it was also announced that they expect to meet the high end of their 70M/73M subscriber target by the end of the year. This is based mostly on high uptake in recently-launched Latin American services, and anticipation of growth through Spanish and Nordic territories later this year.

Of course, even the revised growth is half that predicted for Disney+. Yet, it’s still pretty impressive in a market that Disney and Netflix have in a chokehold. The exit from pay-TV also means they can further develop their AVOD tier, as it negates the inability to offer discounted tiers. It’s also worth remembering that many customers who were paying for HBO simply received HBO max subscriptions by default at the switch.

All in all, these figures are not bad at all in a year where many have struggled to reach growth. The Blake & Wang P.A team will be watching this service carefully as it grows further.

Did anyone predict a global streamer taking over a stalwart of the exhibition industry? While it may not have been a prediction for the year, it’s now a reality. We asked Blake & Wang P.A’s Brandon Blake for more details.

Together with Caruso, Netflix will be reopening the Bay Theater in Palisades Village. This legendary venue was forced into closure during the pandemic, and Cinépolis, the previous leaseholder, declined to reopen. This is, of course, not Netflix’s first theater, with the Paris in NYC already in operation and the Egyptian Theater planned to reopen next year in conjunction with American Cinematheque.

The Bay Theater will reopen from October 22nd with some tempting films and free screenings for two family-orientated pictures, no doubt hoping to boost their community profile. They’re certainly pushing to be seen as a family-focused location. It seems it won’t quite go back into full-time operation, but Netflix will be using it for theatrical releases of its productions as well as classic film screenings (in 35mm, even), and special events, which is far preferable to losing a historic exhibition venue. For the opening weeks, free concessions will doubtless prove a drawcard for families, too. 

The Bay Theater has a history littered with closures and reopenings. From it’s 1948 design, it was shuttered in 1978, to become a hardware store. Caruso were instrumental in its 2018 reopening with luxury seating and a full restoration of the original design. While the pandemic may have put a thorn in its path, it’s good to see the venue reopen and, hopefully, thrive. 

In a way, association with a streamer could prove to be a grace for the historic venue, especially if their plans for live appearances and Q&As pay off, which could bring substantial community investment in the theater. As always, our local entertainment lawyer will keep an eye on further developments.

After a remarkable international opening, No Time to Die is heading to the domestic Box Office. It was predicted to open to at least $60M domestically, and made a conservative and slightly disappointing $56M, far below the enthusiastic predictions of $100M that were bandied around. Any future success hinges on whether theaters can lure the older adult demographic that Bond plays well to into the theater. How likely is that, given a lackluster opening? Entertainment attorney Brandon Blake analyzes everything for us.

Internationally, we saw the older adult demographic practically stampede to the theater for Daniel Craig’s last Bond outing. Especially in the UK, where ‘Bondmania’ is the strongest. It has, in fact, crossed the $300M mark internationally this weekend. 

We can benchmark No Time to Die’s opening against Spectre’s $70.4M, and Venom 2’s remarkable $90M. Why has there been less theatrical traction for No Time to Die? Spectre’s domestic opening stats tell us the audience was 29% over 45 and 15% over 55. 62% were male and 75% over 25. And therein lies the answer.

While all ages have enjoyed Venom 2, the Marvel offerings from Sony and Disney alike have heavy traction in younger demographics and among Hispanic audiences. Those same younger demographic have been eager to return to theaters. The older Caucasian males that traditionally make up Bond audiences? Not so much, at least in the U.S.

All the same, while the film didn’t make its lofty record-breaking predictions, let’s not detract too much from a solid opening. It’s the widest Bond release to date in the U.S and Canada, too. For a much-anticipated film that’s had its release date messed around a lot, and a remarkable global release, it’s doing well. Will it have the pulling power to coax this much-needed demographic back to domestic theaters? That remains to be seen, but it’s got the best chances of anything on the 2021 release slate to date.